#!/usr/bin/Rscript require(methods) options(warn=2) args <- commandArgs(trailingOnly=TRUE) if(.Platform$OS.type == "unix"){ root.dir <- "/home/share/CorpCDOs" }else{ root.dir <- "//WDSENTINEL/share/CorpCDOs" } source(file.path(root.dir, "code", "R", "cds_utils.R")) source(file.path(root.dir, "code", "R", "cds_functions_generic.R")) source(file.path(root.dir, "code", "R", "tranche_functions.R")) source(file.path(root.dir, "code", "R", "yieldcurve.R")) source(file.path(root.dir, "code", "R", "optimization.R")) load.index("hy21") ##figure out the tradedate if(length(args) >= 1){ tradedate <- as.Date(args[1]) }else{ tradedate <- Sys.Date() } exportYC(tradedate) ## calibrate HY21 ## calibrate the single names curves singlenames.data <- read.csv(file.path(root.dir, "Scenarios", "Calibration", paste0("hy21_singlenames_", tradedate, ".csv"))) nondefaulted <- singlenames.data[!singlenames.data$ticker %in% hy21$defaulted,] bps <- 1e-4 cdsdates <- as.Date(character(0)) for(tenor in paste0(1:5, "y")){ cdsdates <- c(cdsdates, cdsMaturity(tenor, date=tradedate)) } hy21portfolio <- c() cs <- couponSchedule(IMMDate(tradedate), cdsdates[length(cdsdates)], "Q", "FIXED", 1, tradedate, IMMDate(tradedate, "prev")) for(i in 1:nrow(nondefaulted)){ SC <- new("creditcurve", recovery=nondefaulted$recovery[i]/100, startdate=tradedate, issuer=as.character(nondefaulted$ticker[i])) quotes <- data.frame(maturity=cdsdates, upfront = as.numeric(nondefaulted[i,4:8]) /100, running=rep(nondefaulted$running[i] * bps, 5)) SC@curve <- cdshazardrate(quotes, nondefaulted$recovery[i]/100, tradedate, cs) hy21portfolio <- c(hy21portfolio, SC) } issuerweights <- rep(1/length(hy21portfolio), length(hy21portfolio)) ## load tranche data K <- c(0, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35, 1) Kmodified <- adjust.attachments(K, hy21$loss, hy21$factor) market.data <- read.csv(file.path(root.dir, "Scenarios", "Calibration", paste0("hy21_tranches_", tradedate, ".csv"))) tranche.upf <- market.data$Mid tranche.running <- c(0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05) # get the index ref hy21$indexref <- market.data$bidRefPrice[1]/100 hy21portfolio.tweaked <- tweakcurves(hy21portfolio, hy21, tradedate)$portfolio cs <- couponSchedule(IMMDate(tradedate), hy21$maturity,"Q", "FIXED", 0.05, 0, tradedate, IMMDate(tradedate, "prev")) SurvProb <- SPmatrix(hy21portfolio.tweaked, length(cs$dates)) Ngrid <- 2 * nrow(nondefaulted) + 1 recov <- sapply(hy21portfolio.tweaked, attr, "recovery") acc <- cdsAccrued(tradedate, 0.05) ##calibrate by modifying the factor distribution bottomup <- 1:3 topdown <- 2:4 n.int <- 500 n.credit <- length(hy21portfolio) errvec <- c() quadrature <- gauss.quad.prob(n.int, "normal") w <- quadrature$weights Z <- quadrature$nodes w.mod <- w defaultprob <- 1 - SurvProb p <- defaultprob rho <- rep(0.45, n.credit) result <- matrix(0, 4, n.int) err <- Inf while(err >0.01){ Rstoch <- array(0, dim=c(n.credit, n.int, ncol(SurvProb))) for(t in 1:ncol(SurvProb)){ for(i in 1:n.credit){ Rstoch[i,,t] <- stochasticrecovC(recov[i], 0, Z, w.mod, rho[i], defaultprob[i,t], p[i,t]) } } L <- array(0, dim=c(n.int, Ngrid, ncol(defaultprob))) R <- array(0, dim=c(n.int, Ngrid, ncol(defaultprob))) for(t in 1:ncol(defaultprob)){ S <- 1 - Rstoch[,,t] L[,,t] <- t(lossdistCZ(p[,t], issuerweights, S, Ngrid, 0, rho, Z)) R[,,t] <- t(lossdistCZ(p[,t], issuerweights, 1-S, Ngrid, 0, rho, Z)) } for(i in 1:n.int){ result[,i] <- tranche.pvvec(Kmodified, L[i,,], R[i,,], cs) - acc } ## solve the optimization problem program <- KLfit(100*(result[bottomup,]+1), w, tranche.upf[bottomup]) err <- 0 for(i in 1:n.credit){ for(j in 1:ncol(p)){ err <- err + abs(crossprod(shockprob(p[i,j], rho[i], Z), program$weight) - defaultprob[i,j]) } } errvec <- c(errvec, err) ## update the new probabilities p <- MFupdate.probC(Z, program$weight, rho, defaultprob) errvec <- c(errvec, err) w.mod <- program$weight cat(err,"\n") } Rstoch <- array(0, dim=c(n.credit, n.int, ncol(SurvProb))) for(t in 1:ncol(SurvProb)){ for(i in 1:n.credit){ Rstoch[i,,t] <- stochasticrecovC(recov[i], 0, Z, w.mod, rho[i], defaultprob[i,t], p[i,t]) } } Lw <- matrix(0, Ngrid, n.int) Rw <- matrix(0, Ngrid, n.int) L <- matrix(0, Ngrid, ncol(defaultprob)) R <- matrix(0, Ngrid, ncol(defaultprob)) for(t in 1:ncol(defaultprob)){ S <- 1 - Rstoch[,,t] Lw <- lossdistCZ(p[,t], issuerweights, S, Ngrid, 0, rho, Z) Rw <- lossdistCZ(p[,t], issuerweights, 1-S, Ngrid, 0, rho, Z) L[,t] <- Lw%*%w.mod R[,t] <- Rw%*%w.mod } dist <- list(L=L, R=R) write.table(data.frame(Z=Z, w=w.mod), file=file.path(root.dir, "Scenarios", "Calibration", paste0("calibration-", tradedate, ".csv")), col.names=T, row.names=F, sep=",") save(singlenames.data, hy21, tranche.upf, dist, file = file.path(root.dir, "Scenarios", "Calibration", paste0("marketdata-", tradedate, ".RData")), compress="xz")