{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 111, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "import exploration.marketing as mk\n", "import numpy as np\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "import matplotlib as plt" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 112, "metadata": { "collapsed": true }, "outputs": [], "source": [ "#Vary weights:size of investment and success_prob: likelihood of investment" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 113, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "##----Now look at the consequence of the different approaches -----##\n", "#100 prospect of 10mm each, correlation of 30%, likelihood: 10% each- expected capital raised: 100mm\n", "num_prospect = 100\n", "pool_size = 1000 #1bn\n", "rho = .3\n", "prob = .1\n", "successprob = np.full((num_prospect, 1), prob)\n", "issuerweights = np.full(num_prospect, 1/num_prospect)\n", "amount = np.full(num_prospect, 0.0)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 114, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "application/javascript": [ "/* Put everything inside the global mpl namespace */\n", "window.mpl = {};\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.get_websocket_type = function() {\n", " if (typeof(WebSocket) !== 'undefined') {\n", " return WebSocket;\n", " } else if (typeof(MozWebSocket) !== 'undefined') {\n", " return MozWebSocket;\n", " } else {\n", " alert('Your browser does not have WebSocket support.' +\n", " 'Please try Chrome, Safari or Firefox ≥ 6. ' +\n", " 'Firefox 4 and 5 are also supported but you ' +\n", " 'have to enable WebSockets in about:config.');\n", " };\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure = function(figure_id, websocket, ondownload, parent_element) {\n", " this.id = figure_id;\n", "\n", " this.ws = websocket;\n", "\n", " this.supports_binary = (this.ws.binaryType != undefined);\n", "\n", " if (!this.supports_binary) {\n", " var warnings = document.getElementById(\"mpl-warnings\");\n", " if (warnings) {\n", " warnings.style.display = 'block';\n", " warnings.textContent = (\n", " \"This browser does not support binary websocket messages. \" +\n", " \"Performance may be slow.\");\n", " }\n", " }\n", "\n", " this.imageObj = new Image();\n", "\n", " this.context = undefined;\n", " this.message = undefined;\n", " this.canvas = undefined;\n", " this.rubberband_canvas = undefined;\n", " this.rubberband_context = undefined;\n", " this.format_dropdown = undefined;\n", "\n", " this.image_mode = 'full';\n", "\n", " this.root = $('
');\n", " this._root_extra_style(this.root)\n", " this.root.attr('style', 'display: inline-block');\n", "\n", " $(parent_element).append(this.root);\n", "\n", " this._init_header(this);\n", " this._init_canvas(this);\n", " this._init_toolbar(this);\n", "\n", " var fig = this;\n", "\n", " this.waiting = false;\n", "\n", " this.ws.onopen = function () {\n", " fig.send_message(\"supports_binary\", {value: fig.supports_binary});\n", " fig.send_message(\"send_image_mode\", {});\n", " if (mpl.ratio != 1) {\n", " fig.send_message(\"set_dpi_ratio\", {'dpi_ratio': mpl.ratio});\n", " }\n", " fig.send_message(\"refresh\", {});\n", " }\n", "\n", " this.imageObj.onload = function() {\n", " if (fig.image_mode == 'full') {\n", " // Full images could contain transparency (where diff images\n", " // almost always do), so we need to clear the canvas so that\n", " // there is no ghosting.\n", " fig.context.clearRect(0, 0, fig.canvas.width, fig.canvas.height);\n", " }\n", " fig.context.drawImage(fig.imageObj, 0, 0);\n", " };\n", "\n", " this.imageObj.onunload = function() {\n", " this.ws.close();\n", " }\n", "\n", " this.ws.onmessage = this._make_on_message_function(this);\n", "\n", " this.ondownload = ondownload;\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._init_header = function() {\n", " var titlebar = $(\n", " '
');\n", " var titletext = $(\n", " '
');\n", " titlebar.append(titletext)\n", " this.root.append(titlebar);\n", " this.header = titletext[0];\n", "}\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n", "\n", "}\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n", "\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._init_canvas = function() {\n", " var fig = this;\n", "\n", " var canvas_div = $('
');\n", "\n", " canvas_div.attr('style', 'position: relative; clear: both; outline: 0');\n", "\n", " function canvas_keyboard_event(event) {\n", " return fig.key_event(event, event['data']);\n", " }\n", "\n", " canvas_div.keydown('key_press', canvas_keyboard_event);\n", " canvas_div.keyup('key_release', canvas_keyboard_event);\n", " this.canvas_div = canvas_div\n", " this._canvas_extra_style(canvas_div)\n", " this.root.append(canvas_div);\n", "\n", " var canvas = $('');\n", " canvas.addClass('mpl-canvas');\n", " canvas.attr('style', \"left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 0; outline: 0\")\n", "\n", " this.canvas = canvas[0];\n", " this.context = canvas[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n", "\n", " var backingStore = this.context.backingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.webkitBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.mozBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.msBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.oBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.backingStorePixelRatio || 1;\n", "\n", " mpl.ratio = (window.devicePixelRatio || 1) / backingStore;\n", "\n", " var rubberband = $('');\n", " rubberband.attr('style', \"position: absolute; left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 1;\")\n", "\n", " var pass_mouse_events = true;\n", "\n", " canvas_div.resizable({\n", " start: function(event, ui) {\n", " pass_mouse_events = false;\n", " },\n", " resize: function(event, ui) {\n", " fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n", " },\n", " stop: function(event, ui) {\n", " pass_mouse_events = true;\n", " fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n", " },\n", " });\n", "\n", " function mouse_event_fn(event) {\n", " if (pass_mouse_events)\n", " return fig.mouse_event(event, event['data']);\n", " }\n", "\n", " rubberband.mousedown('button_press', mouse_event_fn);\n", " rubberband.mouseup('button_release', mouse_event_fn);\n", " // Throttle sequential mouse events to 1 every 20ms.\n", " rubberband.mousemove('motion_notify', mouse_event_fn);\n", "\n", " rubberband.mouseenter('figure_enter', mouse_event_fn);\n", " rubberband.mouseleave('figure_leave', mouse_event_fn);\n", "\n", " canvas_div.on(\"wheel\", function (event) {\n", " event = event.originalEvent;\n", " event['data'] = 'scroll'\n", " if (event.deltaY < 0) {\n", " event.step = 1;\n", " } else {\n", " event.step = -1;\n", " }\n", " mouse_event_fn(event);\n", " });\n", "\n", " canvas_div.append(canvas);\n", " canvas_div.append(rubberband);\n", "\n", " this.rubberband = rubberband;\n", " this.rubberband_canvas = rubberband[0];\n", " this.rubberband_context = rubberband[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n", " this.rubberband_context.strokeStyle = \"#000000\";\n", "\n", " this._resize_canvas = function(width, height) {\n", " // Keep the size of the canvas, canvas container, and rubber band\n", " // canvas in synch.\n", " canvas_div.css('width', width)\n", " canvas_div.css('height', height)\n", "\n", " canvas.attr('width', width * mpl.ratio);\n", " canvas.attr('height', height * mpl.ratio);\n", " canvas.attr('style', 'width: ' + width + 'px; height: ' + height + 'px;');\n", "\n", " rubberband.attr('width', width);\n", " rubberband.attr('height', height);\n", " }\n", "\n", " // Set the figure to an initial 600x600px, this will subsequently be updated\n", " // upon first draw.\n", " this._resize_canvas(600, 600);\n", "\n", " // Disable right mouse context menu.\n", " $(this.rubberband_canvas).bind(\"contextmenu\",function(e){\n", " return false;\n", " });\n", "\n", " function set_focus () {\n", " canvas.focus();\n", " canvas_div.focus();\n", " }\n", "\n", " window.setTimeout(set_focus, 100);\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._init_toolbar = function() {\n", " var fig = this;\n", "\n", " var nav_element = $('
')\n", " nav_element.attr('style', 'width: 100%');\n", " this.root.append(nav_element);\n", "\n", " // Define a callback function for later on.\n", " function toolbar_event(event) {\n", " return fig.toolbar_button_onclick(event['data']);\n", " }\n", " function toolbar_mouse_event(event) {\n", " return fig.toolbar_button_onmouseover(event['data']);\n", " }\n", "\n", " for(var toolbar_ind in mpl.toolbar_items) {\n", " var name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][0];\n", " var tooltip = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][1];\n", " var image = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][2];\n", " var method_name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][3];\n", "\n", " if (!name) {\n", " // put a spacer in here.\n", " continue;\n", " }\n", " var button = $('');\n", " button.click(method_name, toolbar_event);\n", " button.mouseover(tooltip, toolbar_mouse_event);\n", " nav_element.append(button);\n", " }\n", "\n", " // Add the status bar.\n", " var status_bar = $('');\n", " nav_element.append(status_bar);\n", " this.message = status_bar[0];\n", "\n", " // Add the close button to the window.\n", " var buttongrp = $('
');\n", " var button = $('');\n", " button.click(function (evt) { fig.handle_close(fig, {}); } );\n", " button.mouseover('Stop Interaction', toolbar_mouse_event);\n", " buttongrp.append(button);\n", " var titlebar = this.root.find($('.ui-dialog-titlebar'));\n", " titlebar.prepend(buttongrp);\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(el){\n", " var fig = this\n", " el.on(\"remove\", function(){\n", "\tfig.close_ws(fig, {});\n", " });\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(el){\n", " // this is important to make the div 'focusable\n", " el.attr('tabindex', 0)\n", " // reach out to IPython and tell the keyboard manager to turn it's self\n", " // off when our div gets focus\n", "\n", " // location in version 3\n", " if (IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager) {\n", " IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager.register_events(el);\n", " }\n", " else {\n", " // location in version 2\n", " IPython.keyboard_manager.register_events(el);\n", " }\n", "\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._key_event_extra = function(event, name) {\n", " var manager = IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager;\n", " if (!manager)\n", " manager = IPython.keyboard_manager;\n", "\n", " // Check for shift+enter\n", " if (event.shiftKey && event.which == 13) {\n", " this.canvas_div.blur();\n", " // select the cell after this one\n", " var index = IPython.notebook.find_cell_index(this.cell_info[0]);\n", " IPython.notebook.select(index + 1);\n", " }\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_save = function(fig, msg) {\n", " fig.ondownload(fig, null);\n", "}\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.find_output_cell = function(html_output) {\n", " // Return the cell and output element which can be found *uniquely* in the notebook.\n", " // Note - this is a bit hacky, but it is done because the \"notebook_saving.Notebook\"\n", " // IPython event is triggered only after the cells have been serialised, which for\n", " // our purposes (turning an active figure into a static one), is too late.\n", " var cells = IPython.notebook.get_cells();\n", " var ncells = cells.length;\n", " for (var i=0; i= 3 moved mimebundle to data attribute of output\n", " data = data.data;\n", " }\n", " if (data['text/html'] == html_output) {\n", " return [cell, data, j];\n", " }\n", " }\n", " }\n", " }\n", "}\n", "\n", "// Register the function which deals with the matplotlib target/channel.\n", "// The kernel may be null if the page has been refreshed.\n", "if (IPython.notebook.kernel != null) {\n", " IPython.notebook.kernel.comm_manager.register_target('matplotlib', mpl.mpl_figure_comm);\n", "}\n" ], "text/plain": [ "" ] }, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data" }, { "data": { "text/html": [ "" ], "text/plain": [ "" ] }, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data" }, { "data": { "text/plain": [ "Probability 0.588772\n", "dtype: float64" ] }, "execution_count": 115, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "mk.plot_scenarios(df, pool_size)\n", "mk.prob_over(df, 50)" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "mk.plot_scenarios(df, pool_size)\n", "mk.prob_over(df, 100)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 116, "metadata": { "collapsed": true }, "outputs": [], "source": [ "#40 prospect of 25mm each, correlation of 80%, likelihood: 10% each - expected capital raised: 100mm\n", "num_prospect = 80\n", "pool_size = 50*num_prospect #50*80=4bn\n", "rho = .8\n", "prob = .025\n", "successprob = np.full((num_prospect, 1), prob)\n", "issuerweights = np.full(num_prospect, 1/num_prospect)\n", "amount = np.full(num_prospect, 0.0)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 117, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "application/javascript": [ "/* Put everything inside the global mpl namespace */\n", "window.mpl = {};\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.get_websocket_type = function() {\n", " if (typeof(WebSocket) !== 'undefined') {\n", " return WebSocket;\n", " } else if (typeof(MozWebSocket) !== 'undefined') {\n", " return MozWebSocket;\n", " } else {\n", " alert('Your browser does not have WebSocket support.' +\n", " 'Please try Chrome, Safari or Firefox ≥ 6. ' +\n", " 'Firefox 4 and 5 are also supported but you ' +\n", " 'have to enable WebSockets in about:config.');\n", " };\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure = function(figure_id, websocket, ondownload, parent_element) {\n", " this.id = figure_id;\n", "\n", " this.ws = websocket;\n", "\n", " this.supports_binary = (this.ws.binaryType != undefined);\n", "\n", " if (!this.supports_binary) {\n", " var warnings = document.getElementById(\"mpl-warnings\");\n", " if (warnings) {\n", " warnings.style.display = 'block';\n", " warnings.textContent = (\n", " \"This browser does not support binary websocket messages. \" +\n", " \"Performance may be slow.\");\n", " }\n", " }\n", "\n", " this.imageObj = new Image();\n", "\n", " this.context = undefined;\n", " this.message = undefined;\n", " this.canvas = undefined;\n", " this.rubberband_canvas = undefined;\n", " this.rubberband_context = undefined;\n", " this.format_dropdown = undefined;\n", "\n", " this.image_mode = 'full';\n", "\n", " this.root = $('
');\n", " this._root_extra_style(this.root)\n", " this.root.attr('style', 'display: inline-block');\n", "\n", " $(parent_element).append(this.root);\n", "\n", " this._init_header(this);\n", " this._init_canvas(this);\n", " this._init_toolbar(this);\n", "\n", " var fig = this;\n", "\n", " this.waiting = false;\n", "\n", " this.ws.onopen = function () {\n", " fig.send_message(\"supports_binary\", {value: fig.supports_binary});\n", " fig.send_message(\"send_image_mode\", {});\n", " if (mpl.ratio != 1) {\n", " fig.send_message(\"set_dpi_ratio\", {'dpi_ratio': mpl.ratio});\n", " }\n", " fig.send_message(\"refresh\", {});\n", " }\n", "\n", " this.imageObj.onload = function() {\n", " if (fig.image_mode == 'full') {\n", " // Full images could contain transparency (where diff images\n", " // almost always do), so we need to clear the canvas so that\n", " // there is no ghosting.\n", " fig.context.clearRect(0, 0, fig.canvas.width, fig.canvas.height);\n", " }\n", " fig.context.drawImage(fig.imageObj, 0, 0);\n", " };\n", "\n", " this.imageObj.onunload = function() {\n", " this.ws.close();\n", " }\n", "\n", " this.ws.onmessage = this._make_on_message_function(this);\n", "\n", " this.ondownload = ondownload;\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._init_header = function() {\n", " var titlebar = $(\n", " '
');\n", " var titletext = $(\n", " '
');\n", " titlebar.append(titletext)\n", " this.root.append(titlebar);\n", " this.header = titletext[0];\n", "}\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n", "\n", "}\n", "\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n", "\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._init_canvas = function() {\n", " var fig = this;\n", "\n", " var canvas_div = $('
');\n", "\n", " canvas_div.attr('style', 'position: relative; clear: both; outline: 0');\n", "\n", " function canvas_keyboard_event(event) {\n", " return fig.key_event(event, event['data']);\n", " }\n", "\n", " canvas_div.keydown('key_press', canvas_keyboard_event);\n", " canvas_div.keyup('key_release', canvas_keyboard_event);\n", " this.canvas_div = canvas_div\n", " this._canvas_extra_style(canvas_div)\n", " this.root.append(canvas_div);\n", "\n", " var canvas = $('');\n", " canvas.addClass('mpl-canvas');\n", " canvas.attr('style', \"left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 0; outline: 0\")\n", "\n", " this.canvas = canvas[0];\n", " this.context = canvas[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n", "\n", " var backingStore = this.context.backingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.webkitBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.mozBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.msBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.oBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n", "\tthis.context.backingStorePixelRatio || 1;\n", "\n", " mpl.ratio = (window.devicePixelRatio || 1) / backingStore;\n", "\n", " var rubberband = $('');\n", " rubberband.attr('style', \"position: absolute; left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 1;\")\n", "\n", " var pass_mouse_events = true;\n", "\n", " canvas_div.resizable({\n", " start: function(event, ui) {\n", " pass_mouse_events = false;\n", " },\n", " resize: function(event, ui) {\n", " fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n", " },\n", " stop: function(event, ui) {\n", " pass_mouse_events = true;\n", " fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n", " },\n", " });\n", "\n", " function mouse_event_fn(event) {\n", " if (pass_mouse_events)\n", " return fig.mouse_event(event, event['data']);\n", " }\n", "\n", " rubberband.mousedown('button_press', mouse_event_fn);\n", " rubberband.mouseup('button_release', mouse_event_fn);\n", " // Throttle sequential mouse events to 1 every 20ms.\n", " rubberband.mousemove('motion_notify', mouse_event_fn);\n", "\n", " rubberband.mouseenter('figure_enter', mouse_event_fn);\n", " rubberband.mouseleave('figure_leave', mouse_event_fn);\n", "\n", " canvas_div.on(\"wheel\", function (event) {\n", " event = event.originalEvent;\n", " event['data'] = 'scroll'\n", " if (event.deltaY < 0) {\n", " event.step = 1;\n", " } else {\n", " event.step = -1;\n", " }\n", " mouse_event_fn(event);\n", " });\n", "\n", " canvas_div.append(canvas);\n", " canvas_div.append(rubberband);\n", "\n", " this.rubberband = rubberband;\n", " this.rubberband_canvas = rubberband[0];\n", " this.rubberband_context = rubberband[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n", " this.rubberband_context.strokeStyle = \"#000000\";\n", "\n", " this._resize_canvas = function(width, height) {\n", " // Keep the size of the canvas, canvas container, and rubber band\n", " // canvas in synch.\n", " canvas_div.css('width', width)\n", " canvas_div.css('height', height)\n", "\n", " canvas.attr('width', width * mpl.ratio);\n", " canvas.attr('height', height * mpl.ratio);\n", " canvas.attr('style', 'width: ' + width + 'px; height: ' + height + 'px;');\n", "\n", " rubberband.attr('width', width);\n", " rubberband.attr('height', height);\n", " }\n", "\n", " // Set the figure to an initial 600x600px, this will subsequently be updated\n", " // upon first draw.\n", " this._resize_canvas(600, 600);\n", "\n", " // Disable right mouse context menu.\n", " $(this.rubberband_canvas).bind(\"contextmenu\",function(e){\n", " return false;\n", " });\n", "\n", " function set_focus () {\n", " canvas.focus();\n", " canvas_div.focus();\n", " }\n", "\n", " window.setTimeout(set_focus, 100);\n", "}\n", "\n", "mpl.figure.prototype._init_toolbar = function() {\n", " var fig = this;\n", "\n", " var nav_element = $('
')\n", " nav_element.attr('style', 'width: 100%');\n", " this.root.append(nav_element);\n", "\n", " // Define a callback function for later on.\n", " function toolbar_event(event) {\n", " return fig.toolbar_button_onclick(event['data']);\n", " }\n", " function toolbar_mouse_event(event) {\n", " return fig.toolbar_button_onmouseover(event['data']);\n", " }\n", "\n", " for(var toolbar_ind in mpl.toolbar_items) {\n", " var name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][0];\n", " var tooltip = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][1];\n", " var image = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][2];\n", " var method_name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][3];\n", "\n", " if (!name) {\n", " // put a spacer in here.\n", " continue;\n", " }\n", " var button = $('');\n", " button.click(method_name, toolbar_event);\n", " button.mouseover(tooltip, toolbar_mouse_event);\n", " nav_element.append(button);\n", " }\n", "\n", " // Add the status bar.\n", " var status_bar = $('');\n", " nav_element.append(status_bar);\n", " this.message = status_bar[0];\n", "\n", " // Add the close button to the window.\n", " var buttongrp = $('
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Probability
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16.00.000000
24.00.000000
32.00.000000
40.00.000000
48.00.033196
56.00.011065
64.00.000000
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144.00.005597
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160.00.001866
168.00.000207
176.00.000000
184.00.000000
192.00.003035
200.00.004047
208.00.002023
216.00.000450
224.00.000037
232.00.000000
......
3768.00.000041
3776.00.000041
3784.00.000041
3792.00.000041
3800.00.000041
3808.00.000041
3816.00.000042
3824.00.000042
3832.00.000042
3840.00.000042
3848.00.000042
3856.00.000042
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3872.00.000043
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3896.00.000044
3904.00.000045
3912.00.000045
3920.00.000046
3928.00.000047
3936.00.000049
3944.00.000050
3952.00.000052
3960.00.000054
3968.00.000055
3976.00.000057
3984.00.000057
3992.00.000056
4000.00.000254
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