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2015-09-15Squared modelThibaut Horel
2015-09-15Print some more stats about the causesThibaut Horel
2015-09-14prediction and plotting cascadesBen Green
2015-09-14Import supplements and repo reorganizationThibaut Horel
2015-09-14Add gitignoreThibaut Horel
2015-09-14Update refine accordinglyThibaut Horel
2015-09-14Small tweak which might help with numerical precisionThibaut Horel
2015-09-14Getting read of old stuffThibaut Horel
2015-09-14Clean the "cause" codeThibaut Horel
2015-09-13updated prediction code for new model and data formatBen Green
2015-09-13Digging into the dataThibaut Horel
2015-09-13changed background model from sin^2 to sinBen Green
2015-09-13Final tweaks to the optimizationThibaut Horel
2015-09-12Incorporate the time varying model for the background rateThibaut Horel
2015-09-09updated R scriptsBen Green
2015-09-09Add optimization codeThibaut Horel
2015-08-30wrote script to find background rate using nlsBen Green
2015-08-29made simulations much more efficientBen Green
2015-08-23get dag-dat for dist=2 edgesBen Green
2015-08-23Merge branch 'master' of github.com:Thibauth/criminal_cascadesThibaut Horel
2015-08-23Code for hawkes modelThibaut Horel
2015-08-22added age to sim analysis and updated data generation for new modelBen Green
2015-08-21added age to sim analysis and updated data generation for new modelBen Green
2015-08-18Crime -> infectionThibaut Horel
2015-08-18WIPThibaut Horel
2015-08-01minor updatesBen Green
2015-07-14a few experimentsBen Green
2015-07-08updated temporal model for different time scales, ran some testsBen Green
2015-07-03Add thresholding algorithm and beginning of beta optimizationThibaut Horel
2015-07-02Merge branch 'master' of github.com:Thibauth/criminal_cascadesThibaut Horel
2015-07-02just some minor tests with mlBen Green
2015-07-02in which the model works!!Ben Green
2015-07-01Got predict-victims running in parallel, drastically reducing the timeBen Green
for each test. Also changed how we get the rankings of infected individuals each day.
2015-06-29Merge branch 'master' of horel.org:thibaut/criminal_cascadesThibaut Horel
2015-06-29Beginning of MLE sectionThibaut Horel
2015-06-29First draft of the (almost) full specification of the probabilistic modelThibaut Horel
2015-06-29First draft of the (almost) full specification of the probabilistic modelThibaut Horel
2015-06-29Some notesThibaut Horel
2015-06-28Worked on synthetic data recovery so we can tell how high the actualBen Green
infector is ranked among all potential parents. Cleaned up code for the predicting victims benchmarking test.
2015-06-25Worked on process to generate cascades in R, recover them in ml2, andBen Green
compare true/recovered. Results look good: ml2 finds close-to-actual parameters and gets ~60% of the infectors right. I will check how many recovery gets in the top 2 or 3 infectors.
2015-06-25Tried ml3 that allows for multiple parents to infect.Ben Green
2015-06-25playing around with ml3Ben Green
2015-06-23ran some experiments with ml3, still no good resultsBen Green
2015-06-23updated calculation of structural component with edge weights, and toBen Green
penalize less for longer distances
2015-06-22Added ml3, where we don’t consider edges from victims to non-victims.Ben Green
Also playing around with only allowing most likely parent to try and infect. Still working to see if some variant produces good results that allow us to determine seeds/non-seeds.
2015-06-20altered weight_success to show dist and dt between each parent and childBen Green
2015-06-20More tests with ml2 to find optimal resultsBen Green
2015-06-20First draft of the (almost) full specification of the probabilistic modelThibaut Horel
2015-06-20added new model, ml2, which assumes all victims are infected by someoneBen Green
else (unless they are root victims)
2015-06-20tried generating cascades and recovering parameters, still got the sameBen Green
result where optimization minimizes alpha, delta as much as possible