library(igraph)
setwd("~/Documents/Violence Cascades/")
load('Results/hyper-lcc.RData')

# load data
hyp_lcc = upgrade_graph(hyp_lcc)
vic_ids = which(V(hyp_lcc)$vic==TRUE)
non_vic_ids = which(V(hyp_lcc)$vic==FALSE)

hist(as.numeric(hyp_lcc_verts$vic.day[vic_ids]),2000,col='lightblue',
     xlab='Day of Study Period',main='Infections During the Study Period')

# get infection counts per day
days = 1:3012
t = table(factor(hyp_lcc_verts$vic.day[vic_ids],levels=days))
counts = as.vector(t)
infs = data.frame(days,counts)

# define background function
fit = function(x, lambda, A, phi) {lambda + A*(sin((pi/365)*x+phi))^2}
fit_form = counts ~ lambda + A*(sin((pi/365)*days+phi))^2

# explore data
plot(days,counts)
curve(fit(x, lambda=1, A=12, phi=2.8), add=TRUE ,lwd=2, col="steelblue")

res = nls(formula=fit_form, data=infs, start=list(lambda=1, A=12, phi=2.8))
co = coef(res); co

plot(t)
plot(days,counts,pch=20,cex=0.4,xlab='Day',ylab='Number of Infections')
curve(fit(x, lambda=co["lambda"], A=co["A"], phi=co["phi"]), add=TRUE ,lwd=5, col="steelblue")