# run after find-cascades

load('Results/dag_dat_all.RData')

edges_all = dag_dat_all
edges_all$t2[is.na(edges_all$t2)] = max(hyp_lcc_verts$vic.day,na.rm=T)+1
realized_all = as.numeric(rownames(dag_dat_vics)[realized])

p_t = temporal(edges_all$t1, edges_all$t2, alpha)
p_s = structural(delta, edges_all$dist)
p = p_s * p_t
p_tilde = 1 - p_s + p_s * temporal(edges_all$t1, edges_all$t2+1, alpha)

vic.days = hyp_lcc_verts$vic.day
vic.days[is.na(vic.days)] = max(hyp_lcc_verts$vic.day,na.rm=T)+1
ages = vic.days-hyp_lcc_verts$spawn.date

# realized edges
prob_realized = sum(log(p[realized_all]))

# non-realized edges
prob_not_realized = sum(log(p_tilde[-realized_all]))

# seeds
prob_beta = n.seeds * log(beta)

# non-seeds
prob_beta_tilde = sum(ages) * log(1-beta)

ll = prob_beta + prob_beta_tilde + prob_realized + prob_not_realized