\documentclass[10pt]{article} \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} \usepackage[hmargin=1.2in, vmargin=1.2in]{geometry} \usepackage{amsmath,amsfonts} \title{\large Review of \emph{On Bayes and Nash experiment design for hypothesis testing problems}} \date{} \begin{document} \maketitle \paragraph{Summary.} This paper studies a standard ANOVA hypothesis testing problem: given $K$ treatments, determine whether they all have the same average effect, or whether there exists a pair of treatments whose average effects are different. The authors consider the likelihood ratio test and the focus is on finding and characterizing the optimal design. The contributions are as follows: \begin{itemize} \item first, optimality is formulated as a maxi-min problem: find the most powerful design for the worst possible value of the unknown treatment effects in the alternative hypothesis. A previous paper of the authors had established that the balanced design is optimal for this criterion. \item next, a ``pseudo-Bayes'' approach is adopted: there is a prior on the average treatment effects, and the goal is to find the design which is most powerful on average over this prior. It is found that the balanced design is optimal in that sense whenever the prior is exchangeable. \item next, the authors consider a game theoretic approach where the optimal design problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum game between the ``max'' player attempting to find the optimal design and the ``min'' player attempting to find the worst possible configuration of average effects. The unique Nash equilibrium of the game is computed for two different choices of strategy space for the max player. Again, the balanced design is found to be the optimal strategy (assuming it is contained in the strategy space of the max player). \item finally, the authors consider a ``tree order'' setting in which the null hypothesis is that all treatments have the same effects, and the alternative is that all treatments $2\leq i\leq K$ have an effect greater than treatment $1$. The Nash equilibrium of the two-player game is computed. \end{itemize} \paragraph{Overall impression.} The problem considered in this paper is natural and interesting but I found the results to be underwhelming. Specifically: \begin{itemize} \item the fact that the balanced design is optimal was already known for some criteria (e.g. A-optimality and, by a previous of the authors, the maxi-min criterion). As revealed by the proofs, all of these results (including the new criteria considered in this work) express in slightly different ways that the underlying ANOVA setting is symmetric. \item I do not completely buy the game theoretic formulation. There is nothing inherently strategic in the setting considered. The fact that any maxi-min or mini-max problem can be \emph{interpreted} as a two-player game is always true and it does not seem that the present paper is saying more than that. \item I am not convinced by the value of arbitrarily restricting the action space of the max-player (the experiment designer) at the beginning of Section 4 and of the resulting Theorem 4.1. Would it make more sense to directly consider the general case where the max-player can choose \emph{any} design, and in particular, where the balanced design is part of the action space. In other words, the story leading to Theorem 4.3 seems unnecessary to me and I think this theorem could have been stated first. \end{itemize} \paragraph{Minor comments.} \begin{itemize} \item In the definition of $\mathcal{M}_\delta$ (equation (7)), it would be good to have a remark about how $\delta$ is chosen. For examples, what are implications of choosing one value vs.\ another value, how to choose it in practice, etc. \item In section 4, I think it would be better to define the value of game outside of Theorem 4.2. Defining it formally, explain that it is only defined when $\min\max\dots = \max\min\dots$ and that it requires the action space to be convex. \item related to the previous point, the use of the word \emph{value} in the proofs is inconsistent. It seems to be sometimes used to refer the value of an arbitrary pair of strategies, whereas in game theory, it usually only refers to the $\min\max$ value. \item paragraph above Theorem 4.3: the phrasing ``Since any $\xi$ can be written as mixture of other elements\dots'' is a bit vague. It would be better to simply say: ``Since the action space $\Xi$ is convex''. Relatedly, when introducing mixed strategies, I would emphasize the importance of having a convex strategy space, which is the key property needed to guarantee the existence of Nash equilibria and the reason to consider mixed strategies in the first place, when the action space is finite. \end{itemize} \paragraph{Conclusion.} The paper is well-written and constitutes a clean and short exposition of simple results. \end{document}