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|
from __future__ import annotations
from .basket_index import BasketIndex
from .tranche_functions import (
credit_schedule,
adjust_attachments,
GHquad,
BCloss_recov_dist,
BCloss_recov_trunc,
CDS2015,
OldCDS,
tranche_cl,
tranche_pl,
tranche_pl_trunc,
tranche_cl_trunc,
)
from .exceptions import MissingDataError
from .index_data import get_tranche_quotes
from .utils import (
memoize,
build_table,
bus_day,
get_external_nav,
run_local,
)
from collections import namedtuple
from . import dawn_engine, serenitas_pool
from copy import deepcopy
from dateutil.relativedelta import relativedelta
from lru import LRU
from math import log
from pandas.tseries.offsets import Day
from pyisda.date import cds_accrued
from scipy.optimize import brentq
from scipy.interpolate import CubicSpline, PchipInterpolator
from scipy.special import logit, expit
from typing import Callable
import datetime
import logging
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import analytics
import warnings
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
class dSkew:
__slots__ = ("s1", "s2")
def __init__(self, skew1: CubicSpline, skew2: CubicSpline):
self.s1 = skew1.skew_fun
self.s2 = skew2.skew_fun
class Skew:
__cache = LRU(64)
def __init__(self, el: float, skew: CubicSpline):
self.el = el
self.skew_fun = skew
def __iter__(self):
yield self.el
yield self.skew_fun
def __call__(self, moneyness):
return expit(self.skew_fun(np.log(moneyness)))
def __add__(self, dS: dSkew) -> Callable:
def newSkew(moneyness):
lmoneyness = np.log(moneyness)
return expit(
self.skew_fun(lmoneyness) + dS.s2(lmoneyness) - dS.s1(lmoneyness)
)
return newSkew
def __sub__(self, other: Skew) -> dSkew:
return dSkew(other, self)
@classmethod
def from_desc(
cls, index_type: str, series: int, tenor: str, *, value_date: datetime.date
):
if index_type == "BS":
# we mark bespokes to IG29 skew.
key = ("IG", 29, "5yr", value_date)
else:
key = (index_type, series, tenor, value_date)
if key in cls.__cache:
return cls.__cache[key]
else:
conn = serenitas_pool.getconn()
sql_str = (
"SELECT indexfactor, cumulativeloss "
"FROM index_version "
"WHERE lastdate>=%s AND index=%s AND series=%s"
)
with conn.cursor() as c:
c.execute(sql_str, (value_date, *key[:2]))
factor, cumloss = c.fetchone()
conn.commit()
sql_string = (
"SELECT tranche_id, index_expected_loss, attach, corr_at_detach "
"FROM tranche_risk b "
"LEFT JOIN tranche_quotes a ON a.id = b.tranche_id "
"WHERE a.index=%s AND a.series=%s AND a.tenor=%s "
"AND (quotedate AT TIME ZONE 'America/New_York')::date=%s ORDER BY a.attach"
)
with conn.cursor() as c:
c.execute(sql_string, key)
K, rho = [], []
for tranche_id, el, attach, corr_at_detach in c:
K.append(attach)
if corr_at_detach is not None:
rho.append(corr_at_detach)
conn.commit()
serenitas_pool.putconn(conn)
if not K:
raise MissingDataError(
f"No skew for {index_type}{series} {tenor} on {value_date}"
)
K.append(100)
K = np.array(K) / 100
K = adjust_attachments(K, cumloss / 100, factor / 100)
skew_fun = CubicSpline(np.log(K[1:-1] / el), logit(rho), bc_type="natural")
s = Skew(el, skew_fun)
cls.__cache[key] = s
return s
def plot(self, moneyness_space=True):
if moneyness_space:
moneyness = np.linspace(0, 10, 100)
rho = self(moneyness)
plt.plot(moneyness, rho)
plt.xlabel("moneyness")
plt.ylabel("rho")
plt.plot(self.skew_fun.x, self(self.skew_fun.x), "ro")
else:
attach = np.linspace(0, 1, 100)
rho = self(attach / self.el)
plt.plot(attach, rho)
plt.xlabel("attach")
plt.ylabel("rho")
k = np.exp(self.skew_fun.x) * self.el
plt.plot(k, self(np.exp(self.skew_fun.x)), "ro")
class DualCorrTranche:
__cache = LRU(512)
_Legs = namedtuple("Legs", "coupon_leg, protection_leg, bond_price")
_Ngh = 250
_Ngrid = 301
_Z, _w = GHquad(_Ngh)
_ignore_hash = ["cs"]
def __init__(
self,
index_type: str = None,
series: int = None,
tenor: str = None,
*,
attach: float,
detach: float,
corr_attach: float,
corr_detach: float,
tranche_running: float,
notional: float = 10_000_000,
redcode: str = None,
maturity: datetime.date = None,
value_date: pd.Timestamp = pd.Timestamp.today().normalize(),
use_trunc=False,
trade_id=None,
):
if all((redcode, maturity)):
conn = serenitas_pool.getconn()
with conn.cursor() as c:
c.execute(
"SELECT index, series, tenor FROM index_desc "
"WHERE redindexcode=%s AND maturity = %s",
(redcode, maturity),
)
index_type, series, tenor = c.fetchone()
serenitas_pool.putconn(conn)
self._index = BasketIndex(index_type, series, [tenor], value_date=value_date)
self.index_type = index_type
self.series = series
self.tenor = tenor
self.K_orig = np.array([attach, detach]) / 100
self.attach, self.detach = attach, detach
self.K = adjust_attachments(
self.K_orig, self._index.cumloss, self._index.factor
)
self.rho = [corr_attach, corr_detach]
self.tranche_running = tranche_running
self.notional = notional
if index_type == "BS":
rule = OldCDS
self._accrued = 0.0
else:
rule = CDS2015
self._accrued = cds_accrued(value_date, tranche_running * 1e-4)
self.cs = credit_schedule(
value_date, 1.0, self._index.yc, self._index.maturities[0], rule=rule
)
self.use_trunc = use_trunc
self.trade_id = trade_id
@property
def maturity(self):
return self._index.maturities[0]
@maturity.setter
def maturity(self, m):
# TODO: fix case of bespokes
self._index.maturities = [m]
self.cs = credit_schedule(
self.value_date,
1.0,
self._index.yc,
m,
rule=OldCDS if self.index_type == "BS" else CDS2015,
)
@property
def currency(self):
return self._index.currency
def _default_prob(self, epsilon=0.0):
return (
1
- self._index.survival_matrix(
self.cs.index.to_numpy("M8[D]").view("int") + 134774, epsilon
)[0]
)
def __hash__(self):
def aux(v):
if isinstance(v, list):
return hash(tuple(v))
elif type(v) is np.ndarray:
return hash(v.tobytes())
else:
return hash(v)
return hash(tuple(aux(v) for k, v in vars(self).items() if k != "cs"))
@classmethod
def from_tradeid(cls, trade_id):
r = dawn_engine.execute(
"SELECT cds.*, index_desc.index, index_desc.series, "
"index_desc.tenor FROM cds "
"LEFT JOIN index_desc "
"ON security_id = redindexcode AND "
"cds.maturity = index_desc.maturity "
"WHERE id=%s",
(trade_id,),
)
rec = r.fetchone()
instance = cls(
rec.index,
rec.series,
rec.tenor,
attach=rec.orig_attach,
detach=rec.orig_detach,
corr_attach=rec.corr_attach,
corr_detach=rec.corr_detach,
notional=rec.notional,
tranche_running=rec.fixed_rate * 100,
value_date=rec.trade_date,
)
instance.direction = rec.protection
if rec.index_ref is not None:
instance._index.tweak([rec.index_ref])
instance._trade_date = rec.trade_date
instance.trade_id = trade_id
try:
instance.reset_pv()
except ValueError:
pass
return instance
@property
def value_date(self):
return self._index.value_date
@value_date.setter
def value_date(self, d: pd.Timestamp):
self._index.value_date = d
start_date = pd.Timestamp(d) + Day()
if analytics._include_todays_cashflows:
self.cs = self.cs[self.cs.index >= start_date]
else:
self.cs = self.cs[self.cs.index > start_date]
self.cs.df = self.cs.payment_dates.apply(self._index.yc.discount_factor)
self._accrued = (
(start_date - self.cs.start_dates[0]).days
/ 360
* self.tranche_running
* 1e-4
)
if (
self._index.index_type == "XO"
and self._index.series == 22
and self.value_date > datetime.date(2016, 4, 25)
):
self._index._factor += 0.013333333333333333
self.K = adjust_attachments(
self.K_orig, self._index.cumloss, self._index.factor
)
@memoize(hasher=lambda args: (hash(args[0]._index), *args[1:]))
def tranche_legs(self, K, rho, epsilon=0.0):
if K == 0.0:
return self._Legs(0.0, 0.0, 1.0)
elif K == 1.0:
return self._Legs(*self.index_pv(epsilon))
elif rho is None:
raise ValueError("ρ needs to be a real number between 0. and 1.")
else:
if self.use_trunc:
EL, ER = BCloss_recov_trunc(
self._default_prob(epsilon),
self._index.weights,
self._index.recovery_rates,
rho,
K,
self._Z,
self._w,
self._Ngrid,
)
cl = tranche_cl_trunc(EL, ER, self.cs, 0.0, K)
pl = tranche_pl_trunc(EL, self.cs, 0.0, K)
else:
L, R = BCloss_recov_dist(
self._default_prob(epsilon),
self._index.weights,
self._index.recovery_rates,
rho,
self._Z,
self._w,
self._Ngrid,
)
cl = tranche_cl(L, R, self.cs, 0.0, K)
pl = tranche_pl(L, self.cs, 0.0, K)
bp = 1 + cl * self.tranche_running * 1e-4 + pl
return self._Legs(cl, pl, bp)
def index_pv(self, epsilon=0.0, discounted=True, clean=False):
DP = self._default_prob(epsilon)
df = self.cs.df.values
coupons = self.cs.coupons
ELvec = self._index.weights * (1 - self._index.recovery_rates) @ DP
size = 1 - self._index.weights @ DP
sizeadj = 0.5 * (np.hstack((1.0, size[:-1])) + size)
if not discounted:
pl = -ELvec[-1]
cl = coupons @ sizeadj
else:
pl = -np.diff(np.hstack((0.0, ELvec))) @ df
cl = coupons @ (sizeadj * df)
bp = 1 + cl * self._index.coupon(self.maturity) + pl
if clean:
accrued = self._index.accrued(self.maturity)
bp -= accrued
cl -= accrued / self._index.coupon(self.maturity)
return self._Legs(cl, pl, bp)
@property
def direction(self):
if self.notional > 0.0:
return "Buyer"
else:
return "Seller"
@direction.setter
def direction(self, d):
if d == "Buyer":
self.notional = abs(self.notional)
elif d == "Seller":
self.notional = -abs(self.notional)
else:
raise ValueError("Direction needs to be either 'Buyer' or 'Seller'")
@property
def pv(self):
pl, cl = self._pv()
if not analytics._local:
return -self.notional * self.tranche_factor * (pl + cl) * self._index._fx
else:
return -self.notional * self.tranche_factor * (pl + cl)
@property
def accrued(self):
if not analytics._local:
return (
-self.notional * self.tranche_factor * self._accrued * self._index._fx
)
else:
return -self.notional * self.tranche_factor * self._accrued
@property
def clean_pv(self):
return self.pv - self.accrued
def _pv(self, epsilon=0.0):
""" computes coupon leg, protection leg and bond price.
coupon leg is *dirty*.
bond price is *clean*."""
cl = np.zeros(2)
pl = np.zeros(2)
i = 0
for rho, k in zip(self.rho, self.K):
cl[i], pl[i], _ = self.tranche_legs(k, rho, epsilon)
i += 1
dK = np.diff(self.K)
pl = np.diff(pl) / dK
cl = np.diff(cl) / dK * self.tranche_running * 1e-4
return float(pl), float(cl)
@property
def spread(self):
pl, cl = self._pv()
return -pl / self.duration
@property
def upfront(self):
"""returns protection upfront in points"""
pl, cl = self._pv()
if not analytics._local:
return -100 * (pl + cl - self._accrued) * self._index._fx
else:
return -100 * (pl + cl - self._accrued)
@property
def price(self):
pl, cl = self._pv()
return 100 * (1 + pl + cl - self._accrued)
@upfront.setter
def upfront(self, upf):
def aux(rho):
self.rho[1] = rho
return self.upfront - upf
self.rho[1], r = brentq(aux, 0, 1, full_output=True)
print(r.converged)
@pv.setter
def pv(self, val):
# if super senior tranche, we adjust the lower correlation,
# otherwise we adjust upper
if self.detach == 100:
corr_index = 0
else:
corr_index = 1
rho_saved = self.rho.copy()
def aux(rho, corr_index):
self.rho[corr_index] = rho
return self.pv - val
try:
rho, r = brentq(aux, 0.0, 1.0, (corr_index,), full_output=True)
except ValueError:
self.rho = rho_saved
# if not equity or not super senior we try to adjust lower corr instead
if self.detach < 100 and self.attach > 0:
corr_index = 0
try:
rho, r = brentq(aux, 0.0, 1.0, (corr_index,), full_output=True)
except ValueError:
self.rho = rho_saved
raise
else:
raise
def reset_pv(self):
with run_local():
_pv = self.clean_pv
self._original_local_clean_pv = _pv
self._original_clean_pv = _pv * self._index._fx
self._trade_date = self.value_date
def singlename_spreads(self):
d = {}
for k, w, c in self._index.items():
recov = c.recovery_rates[0]
d[(k[0], k[1].name, k[2].name)] = (
w,
c.par_spread(
self.value_date,
self._index.step_in_date,
self._index.start_date,
[self.maturity],
c.recovery_rates[0:1],
self._index.yc,
)[0],
recov,
)
df = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(d).T
df.columns = ["weight", "spread", "recovery"]
df.index.names = ["ticker", "seniority", "doc_clause"]
df.spread *= 10000
return df
@property
def pnl(self):
if self._original_clean_pv is None:
raise ValueError("original pv not set")
else:
# TODO: handle factor change
days_accrued = (self.value_date - self._trade_date).days / 360
with run_local():
pnl = (
self.clean_pv
- self._original_local_clean_pv
+ self.tranche_running * 1e-4 * days_accrued
)
if not analytics._local:
return pnl * self._index._fx
else:
return pnl
@property
def corr01(self):
orig_pv = self.pv
orig_rho = self.rho.copy()
eps = 0.01
# multiplicative version
# self.rho = np.power(self.rho, 1 - eps)
self.rho += eps
corr01 = self.pv - orig_pv
self.rho = orig_rho
return corr01
def __repr__(self):
s = [
f"{self.index_type}{self.series} {self.tenor} Tranche",
"",
"{:<20}\t{:>15}".format("Value Date", f"{self.value_date:%m/%d/%y}"),
"{:<20}\t{:>15}".format("Direction", self.direction),
]
rows = [
["Notional", self.notional, "PV", (self.upfront, self.tranche_running)],
["Attach", self.attach, "Detach", self.detach],
["Attach Corr", self.rho[0], "Detach Corr", self.rho[1]],
["Delta", self.delta, "Gamma", self.gamma],
]
format_strings = [
[None, "{:,.0f}", None, "{:,.2f}% + {:.2f}bps"],
[None, "{:.2f}", None, "{:,.2f}"],
[
None,
lambda corr: f"{corr * 100:.3f}%" if corr else "N/A",
None,
lambda corr: f"{corr * 100:.3f}%" if corr else "N/A",
],
[None, "{:.3f}", None, "{:.3f}"],
]
s += build_table(rows, format_strings, "{:<20}{:>19}\t\t{:<19}{:>16}")
return "\n".join(s)
def shock(self, params=["pnl"], *, spread_shock, corr_shock, **kwargs):
orig_rho = self.rho
r = []
actual_params = [p for p in params if hasattr(self, p)]
orig_curves = self._index.curves
for ss in spread_shock:
self._index.tweak_portfolio(ss, self.maturity, False)
for corrs in corr_shock:
# also need to map skew
self.rho = [None if rho is None else rho + corrs for rho in orig_rho]
r.append([getattr(self, p) for p in actual_params])
self._index.curves = orig_curves
self.rho = orig_rho
return pd.DataFrame.from_records(
r,
columns=actual_params,
index=pd.MultiIndex.from_product(
[spread_shock, corr_shock], names=["spread_shock", "corr_shock"]
),
)
def mark(self, **kwargs):
if kwargs.pop("use_external", False):
try:
_pv = get_external_nav(
dawn_engine, self.trade_id, self.value_date, "cds"
)
if analytics._local:
_pv /= self._index._fx
self.pv = _pv
return
except ValueError as e:
warnings.warn(str(e))
# tweak the index only if we don't skip_tweak, or if it's not a bespoke
if not (kwargs.get("skip_tweak", False) or self.index_type == "BS"):
# figure out what the ref should be
if "ref" in kwargs:
quotes = kwargs["ref"]
if isinstance(quotes, dict):
ref = quotes[(self.index_type, self.series, self.tenor)]
elif isinstance(quotes, float):
ref = quotes
else:
raise ValueError("don't know what to do with ref: {ref}")
else:
col_ref = "close_price" if self.index_type == "HY" else "close_spread"
sql_query = (
f"SELECT {col_ref} from index_quotes_pre "
"WHERE date <=%s and index=%s and series=%s and "
"tenor=%s and version=%s and source=%s ORDER BY date DESC LIMIT 1"
)
conn = serenitas_pool.getconn()
with conn.cursor() as c:
c.execute(
sql_query,
(
self.value_date,
self.index_type,
self.series,
self.tenor,
self._index.version,
kwargs.get("source", "MKIT"),
),
)
try:
(ref,) = c.fetchone()
except TypeError:
raise MissingDataError(
f"{type(self).__name__}: No market quote for date {self.value_date}"
)
serenitas_pool.putconn(conn)
# now we can tweak
try:
self._index.tweak([ref])
except NameError:
pass
if "skew" in kwargs:
self._skew = kwargs["skew"]
else:
d = self.value_date
retry = 0
while retry < 5:
try:
self._skew = Skew.from_desc(
self.index_type, self.series, self.tenor, value_date=d
)
except MissingDataError as e:
logger.warning(str(e))
d = (d - bus_day).date()
logger.info(f"trying {d}")
retry += 1
else:
break
else:
# we try skew from index one year newer
self._skew = Skew.from_desc(
self.index_type,
self.series + 2,
self.tenor,
value_date=self.value_date,
)
moneyness_eq = self.K / self.expected_loss()
self.rho = self._skew(moneyness_eq)
if self.detach == 100:
self.rho[1] = np.nan
def jtd_single_names(self):
curves = self._index.curves
orig_factor, orig_cumloss = self._index.factor, self._index.cumloss
orig_upf = self.tranche_factor * self.upfront
r = []
tickers = []
rho_orig = self.rho
for weight, curve in curves:
self._index.curves = [
(w, c) if c.full_ticker != curve.full_ticker else (w, None)
for w, c in curves
]
L = (1 - curve.recovery_rates[0]) * weight * orig_factor
self._index._cumloss = orig_cumloss + L
self._index._factor = orig_factor * (1 - weight)
self.K = adjust_attachments(
self.K_orig, self._index.cumloss, self._index.factor
)
self.mark(skip_tweak=True)
upf = self.tranche_factor * self.upfront
# we allocate the loss to the different tranches
loss = (
np.diff(np.clip(self.K, None, L)) / np.diff(self.K_orig) * orig_factor
)
upf += float(loss) * 100
r.append(self.notional * (upf - orig_upf) / 100)
tickers.append(curve.ticker)
self._index._factor, self._index._cumloss = orig_factor, orig_cumloss
self.K = adjust_attachments(
self.K_orig, self._index.cumloss, self._index.factor
)
self._index.curves = curves
self.rho = rho_orig
return pd.Series(
r,
index=pd.MultiIndex.from_product([tickers, [pd.Timestamp(self.maturity)]]),
)
@property
def tranche_factor(self):
return (
(self.K[1] - self.K[0])
/ (self.K_orig[1] - self.K_orig[0])
* self._index.factor
)
@property
def duration(self):
return (self._pv()[1] - self._accrued) / (self.tranche_running * 1e-4)
@property
def hy_equiv(self):
# hy_equiv is on current notional.
if self.index_type == "BS":
ontr = analytics._ontr["HY"]
else:
ontr = analytics._ontr[self.index_type]
risk = (
self.notional
* self.delta
* float(self._index.duration())
* self._index.factor
/ ontr.risky_annuity
* self._index._fx
)
if self.index_type not in ("HY", "BS"):
risk *= analytics._beta[self.index_type]
if self.index_type == "BS":
risk *= self._index.spread(self._index.maturities[0]) / ontr.spread
return risk
@property
def delta(self):
calc = self._greek_calc()
factor = self.tranche_factor / self._index.factor
return (
(calc["bp"][1] - calc["bp"][2])
/ (calc["indexbp"][1] - calc["indexbp"][2])
* factor
)
def theta(self, method="ATM", skew=None):
if self.maturity + relativedelta(years=-1) <= self.value_date + relativedelta(
days=1
):
raise ValueError("less than one year left")
def aux(x, K2, shortened):
if x == 0.0 or x == 1.0:
newrho = x
else:
newrho = skew(x / el)
return (
self.expected_loss_trunc(x, rho=newrho) / el
- self.expected_loss_trunc(K2, newrho, shortened) / el2
)
def find_upper_bound(k, shortened):
k2 = k
while aux(k2, k, shortened) < 0:
k2 *= 1.1
if k2 > 1.0:
raise ValueError("Can't find reasonnable bracketing interval")
return k2
if skew is None:
skew = el, skew_fun = self._skew
else:
el, skew_fun = skew
pv_orig = self.pv
rho_orig = self.rho
el2 = self.expected_loss(shortened=4)
if method == "ATM":
moneyness_eq = self.K / el2
elif method == "TLP":
moneyness_eq = []
for k in self.K:
if k == 0.0 or k == 1.0:
moneyness_eq.append(k / el)
else:
kbound = find_upper_bound(k, 4)
moneyness_eq.append(brentq(aux, 0.0, kbound, (k, 4)) / el)
self.rho = skew(moneyness_eq)
self._index.maturities = [self.maturity - relativedelta(years=1)]
cs = self.cs
self.cs = self.cs[:-4]
r = self.pv - pv_orig
self.rho = rho_orig
self._index.maturities = [self.maturity + relativedelta(years=1)]
self.cs = cs
return -r / self.notional + self.tranche_running * 1e-4
def expected_loss(self, discounted=True, shortened=0):
if shortened > 0:
DP = self._default_prob()[:, :-shortened]
df = self.cs.df.values[:-shortened]
else:
DP = self._default_prob()
df = self.cs.df.values
ELvec = self._index.weights * (1 - self._index.recovery_rates) @ DP
if not discounted:
return ELvec[-1]
else:
return np.diff(np.hstack((0.0, ELvec))) @ df
@memoize(hasher=lambda args: (hash(args[0]._index), *args[1:]))
def expected_loss_trunc(self, K, rho=None, shortened=0):
if rho is None:
rho = self._skew(K)
if shortened > 0:
DP = self._default_prob()[:, :-shortened]
df = self.cs.df.values[:-shortened]
else:
DP = self._default_prob()
df = self.cs.df.values
ELt, _ = BCloss_recov_trunc(
DP,
self._index.weights,
self._index.recovery_rates,
rho,
K,
self._Z,
self._w,
self._Ngrid,
)
return -np.dot(np.diff(np.hstack((K, ELt))), df)
@property
def gamma(self):
calc = self._greek_calc()
factor = self.tranche_factor / self._index.factor
deltaplus = (
(calc["bp"][3] - calc["bp"][0])
/ (calc["indexbp"][3] - calc["indexbp"][0])
* factor
)
delta = (
(calc["bp"][1] - calc["bp"][2])
/ (calc["indexbp"][1] - calc["indexbp"][2])
* factor
)
return (deltaplus - delta) / (calc["indexbp"][1] - calc["indexbp"][0]) / 100
def _greek_calc(self):
eps = 1e-4
indexbp = [self.tranche_legs(1.0, None, 0.0).bond_price]
pl, cl = self._pv()
bp = [pl + cl]
for tweak in [eps, -eps, 2 * eps]:
indexbp.append(self.tranche_legs(1.0, None, tweak).bond_price)
pl, cl = self._pv(tweak)
bp.append(pl + cl)
return {"indexbp": indexbp, "bp": bp}
class TrancheBasket(BasketIndex):
_Legs = namedtuple("Legs", "coupon_leg, protection_leg, bond_price")
_Ngh = 250
_Ngrid = 301
_Z, _w = GHquad(_Ngh)
_ignore_hash = BasketIndex._ignore_hash | set(["_skew"])
def __init__(
self,
index_type: str,
series: int,
tenor: str,
*,
value_date: pd.Timestamp = pd.Timestamp.today().normalize(),
**kwargs,
):
super().__init__(index_type, series, [tenor], value_date=value_date)
self.tenor = tenor
self.maturity = self.index_desc[0][1]
try:
self._set_tranche_quotes(value_date, **kwargs)
except ValueError as e:
raise ValueError(
f"no tranche quotes available for date {value_date}"
) from e
self._update_tranche_quotes()
self.K_orig = np.hstack((0.0, self.tranche_quotes.detach)) / 100
self.K = adjust_attachments(self.K_orig, self.cumloss, self.factor)
self.rho = np.full(self.K.size, np.nan)
self.cs = credit_schedule(value_date, 1.0, self.yc, self.maturity)
def _set_tranche_quotes(self, value_date):
if isinstance(value_date, datetime.datetime):
value_date = value_date.date()
df = get_tranche_quotes(self.index_type, self.series, self.tenor, value_date)
if df.empty:
raise ValueError
else:
self.tranche_quotes = df
def _update_tranche_quotes(self):
if self.index_type == "HY":
self.tranche_quotes["quotes"] = (
1 - self.tranche_quotes.trancheupfrontmid / 100
)
else:
self.tranche_quotes["quotes"] = self.tranche_quotes.trancheupfrontmid / 100
self.tranche_quotes["running"] = self.tranche_quotes.trancherunningmid * 1e-4
if self.index_type == "XO":
coupon = 500 * 1e-4
self.tranche_quotes.quotes.iat[3] = self._snacpv(
self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[3], coupon, 0.4, self.maturity
)
self.tranche_quotes.running = coupon
if self.index_type == "EU":
if self.series >= 21:
coupon = 100 * 1e-4
for i in [2, 3]:
if self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[i] == 0.01 and not np.isnan(
self.tranche_quotes.quotes.iat[i]
):
continue
self.tranche_quotes.quotes.iat[i] = self._snacpv(
self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[i],
coupon,
0.0 if i == 2 else 0.4,
self.maturity,
)
self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[i] = coupon
elif self.series == 9:
for i in [3, 4, 5]:
coupon = 25 * 1e-4 if i == 5 else 100 * 1e-4
recov = 0.4 if i == 5 else 0
self.tranche_quotes.quotes.iat[i] = self._snacpv(
self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[i], coupon, recov, self.maturity
)
self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[i] = coupon
self._accrued = np.array(
[cds_accrued(self.value_date, r) for r in self.tranche_quotes.running]
)
self.tranche_quotes.quotes -= self._accrued
value_date = property(BasketIndex.value_date.__get__)
@value_date.setter
def value_date(self, d: pd.Timestamp):
BasketIndex.value_date.__set__(self, d)
self.cs = credit_schedule(d, 1.0, self.yc, self.maturity)
self.K = adjust_attachments(self.K_orig, self.cumloss, self.factor)
try:
self._set_tranche_quotes(d)
except ValueError as e:
raise ValueError(f"no tranche quotes available for date {d}") from e
self._update_tranche_quotes()
@property
def skew(self) -> Skew:
return Skew(self.expected_loss(), self._skew)
def tranche_factors(self, zero_recovery=False):
if zero_recovery:
K = adjust_attachments(self.K_orig, 1 - self.factor, self.factor)
else:
K = self.K
return np.diff(K) / np.diff(self.K_orig) * self.factor
def _get_quotes(self, spread=None):
if spread is not None:
return {
self.maturity: self._snacpv(
spread * 1e-4,
self.coupon(self.maturity),
self.recovery,
self.maturity,
)
}
refprice = self.tranche_quotes.indexrefprice.iat[0]
refspread = self.tranche_quotes.indexrefspread.iat[0]
if refprice is not None:
return {self.maturity: 1 - refprice / 100}
if refspread is not None:
return {
self.maturity: self._snacpv(
refspread * 1e-4,
self.coupon(self.maturity),
self.recovery,
self.maturity,
)
}
raise ValueError("ref is missing")
@property
def default_prob(self):
sm, tickers = super().survival_matrix(
self.cs.index.values.astype("M8[D]").view("int") + 134774
)
return pd.DataFrame(1 - sm, index=tickers, columns=self.cs.index)
def _default_prob(self, shortened):
if shortened == 0:
cs = self.cs
else:
cs = self.cs[:-shortened]
sm, _ = super().survival_matrix(
cs.index.values.astype("M8[D]").view("int") + 134774
)
return cs, 1 - sm
def tranche_legs(self, K, rho, complement=False, shortened=0, zero_recovery=False):
if (K == 0.0 and not complement) or (K == 1.0 and complement):
return 0.0, 0.0
elif (K == 1.0 and not complement) or (K == 0.0 and complement):
return self.index_pv(shortened=shortened, zero_recovery=zero_recovery)[:-1]
elif np.isnan(rho):
raise ValueError("rho needs to be a real number between 0. and 1.")
else:
cs, default_prob = self._default_prob(shortened)
if zero_recovery:
recovery_rates = np.zeros(self.weights.size)
else:
recovery_rates = self.recovery_rates
L, R = BCloss_recov_dist(
default_prob,
self.weights,
recovery_rates,
rho,
self._Z,
self._w,
self._Ngrid,
)
if complement:
return tranche_cl(L, R, cs, K, 1.0), tranche_pl(L, cs, K, 1.0)
else:
return tranche_cl(L, R, cs, 0.0, K), tranche_pl(L, cs, 0.0, K)
def jump_to_default(self, zero_recovery=False):
curves = self.curves
orig_factor, orig_cumloss = self.factor, self.cumloss
orig_upfs = (
self.tranche_factors()
* self.tranche_pvs(protection=True, zero_recovery=zero_recovery).bond_price
)
r = []
tickers = []
rho_orig = self.rho
for weight, curve in curves:
self.curves = [
(w, c) if c.ticker != curve.ticker else (w, None) for w, c in curves
]
if zero_recovery:
L = weight * orig_factor
else:
L = (1 - curve.recovery_rates[0]) * weight * orig_factor
self._cumloss = orig_cumloss + L
self._factor = orig_factor * (1 - weight)
self.K = adjust_attachments(self.K_orig, self.cumloss, self.factor)
Korig_eq = self.K[1:-1] / self.expected_loss()
self.rho = np.hstack([np.nan, expit(self._skew(np.log(Korig_eq))), np.nan])
upfs = (
self.tranche_factors()
* self.tranche_pvs(
protection=True, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).bond_price
)
# we allocate the loss to the different tranches
loss = np.diff([0, *(min(k, L) for k in self.K[1:])])
upfs += loss / np.diff(self.K_orig) * orig_factor
r.append(upfs)
tickers.append(curve.ticker)
self._factor, self._cumloss = orig_factor, orig_cumloss
self.K = adjust_attachments(self.K_orig, self.cumloss, self.factor)
self.curves = curves
self.rho = rho_orig
r = np.vstack(r)
r = r - orig_upfs
return pd.DataFrame(r, index=tickers, columns=self._row_names)
def tranche_pvs(
self, protection=False, complement=False, shortened=0, zero_recovery=False
):
""" computes coupon leg, protection leg and bond price.
coupon leg is *dirty*.
bond price is *clean*."""
cl = np.zeros_like(self.rho)
pl = np.zeros_like(self.rho)
i = 0
if zero_recovery:
K = adjust_attachments(self.K_orig, 1 - self.factor, self.factor)
else:
K = self.K
for rho, k in zip(self.rho, K):
cl[i], pl[i] = self.tranche_legs(
k, rho, complement, shortened, zero_recovery
)
i += 1
dK = np.diff(K)
pl = np.diff(pl) / dK
cl = np.diff(cl) / dK * self.tranche_quotes.running.values
if complement:
pl *= -1
cl *= -1
if protection:
bp = -pl - cl + self._accrued
else:
bp = 1 + pl + cl - self._accrued
return self._Legs(cl, pl, bp)
def index_pv(self, discounted=True, shortened=0, zero_recovery=False, clean=False):
cs, DP = self._default_prob(shortened)
df = cs.df.values
coupons = cs.coupons.values
if zero_recovery:
ELvec = self.weights @ DP
else:
ELvec = self.weights * (1 - self.recovery_rates) @ DP
size = 1 - self.weights @ DP
sizeadj = 0.5 * (np.hstack((1.0, size[:-1])) + size)
if not discounted:
pl = -ELvec[-1]
cl = coupons @ sizeadj
else:
pl = -np.diff(np.hstack((0.0, ELvec))) @ df
cl = coupons @ (sizeadj * df)
bp = 1 + cl * self.coupon(self.maturity) + pl
if clean:
accrued = self.accrued(self.maturity)
cl -= accrued / self.coupon(self.maturity)
bp -= self.accrued(self.maturity)
return self._Legs(cl, pl, bp)
def expected_loss(self, discounted=True, shortened=0):
if shortened > 0:
DP = self.default_prob.values[:, :-shortened]
df = self.cs.df.values[:-shortened]
else:
DP = self.default_prob.values
df = self.cs.df.values
ELvec = self.weights * (1 - self.recovery_rates) @ DP
if not discounted:
return ELvec[-1]
else:
return np.diff(np.hstack((0.0, ELvec))) @ df
def expected_loss_trunc(self, K, rho=None, shortened=0):
if rho is None:
rho = expit(self._skew(log(K / self.expected_loss())))
if shortened > 0:
DP = self.default_prob.values[:, :-shortened]
df = self.cs.df.values[:-shortened]
else:
DP = self.default_prob.values
df = self.cs.df.values
ELt, _ = BCloss_recov_trunc(
DP, self.weights, self.recovery_rates, rho, K, self._Z, self._w, self._Ngrid
)
return -np.dot(np.diff(np.hstack((K, ELt))), df)
def probability_trunc(self, K, rho=None, shortened=0):
if rho is None:
rho = expit(self._skew(log(K / self.expected_loss())))
L, _ = BCloss_recov_dist(
self.default_prob.values[:, -(1 + shortened), np.newaxis],
self.weights,
self.recovery_rates,
rho,
self._Z,
self._w,
self._Ngrid,
)
p = np.cumsum(L)
support = np.linspace(0, 1, self._Ngrid)
probfun = PchipInterpolator(support, p)
return probfun(K)
def tranche_durations(self, complement=False, zero_recovery=False):
cl = self.tranche_pvs(
complement=complement, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).coupon_leg
durations = (cl - self._accrued) / self.tranche_quotes.running
durations.index = self._row_names
durations.name = "duration"
return durations
def tranche_EL(self, complement=False, zero_recovery=False):
pl = self.tranche_pvs(
complement=complement, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).protection_leg
EL = pd.Series(-pl * np.diff(self.K), index=self._row_names)
EL.name = "expected_loss"
return EL
def tranche_spreads(self, complement=False, zero_recovery=False):
cl, pl, _ = self.tranche_pvs(complement=complement, zero_recovery=zero_recovery)
durations = (cl - self._accrued) / self.tranche_quotes.running.values
return pd.Series(-pl / durations * 1e4, index=self._row_names, name="spread")
@property
def _row_names(self):
""" return pretty row names based on attach-detach"""
ad = (self.K_orig * 100).astype("int")
return [f"{a}-{d}" for a, d in zip(ad, ad[1:])]
def tranche_thetas(
self, complement=False, shortened=4, method="ATM", zero_recovery=False
):
"""
method: One of "ATM", "TLP", "PM", "no_adj"
"""
bp = self.tranche_pvs(
complement=complement, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).bond_price
rho_saved = self.rho
if method != "no_adj":
self.rho = self.map_skew(self, method, shortened)
bpshort = self.tranche_pvs(
complement=complement, shortened=shortened, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).bond_price
self.rho = rho_saved
thetas = bpshort - bp + self.tranche_quotes.running.values
return pd.Series(thetas, index=self._row_names, name="theta")
def tranche_fwd_deltas(self, complement=False, shortened=4, method="ATM"):
orig_cs = self.cs
if shortened > 0:
self.cs = self.cs[:-shortened]
if self.cs.empty:
self.cs = orig_cs
return pd.DataFrame(
{"fwd_delta": np.nan, "fwd_gamma": np.nan}, index=self._row_names
)
orig_rho = self.rho
self.rho = self.map_skew(self, method)
df = self.tranche_deltas()
df.columns = ["fwd_delta", "fwd_gamma"]
self.cs = orig_cs
self.rho = orig_rho
return df
def tranche_deltas(self, complement=False, zero_recovery=False):
eps = 1e-4
curves = deepcopy(self.curves)
bp = np.empty((4, self.K.size - 1))
indexbp = np.empty(4)
i = 0
indexbp[i] = self.index_pv(zero_recovery=False).bond_price
bp[i] = self.tranche_pvs(zero_recovery=zero_recovery).bond_price
for tweak in [eps, -eps, 2 * eps]:
i += 1
self.tweak_portfolio(tweak, self.maturity, False)
indexbp[i] = self.index_pv(zero_recovery=False).bond_price
bp[i] = self.tranche_pvs(zero_recovery=zero_recovery).bond_price
self.curves = curves
factor = self.tranche_factors(zero_recovery) / self.factor
deltas = (bp[1] - bp[2]) / (indexbp[1] - indexbp[2]) * factor
deltasplus = (bp[3] - bp[0]) / (indexbp[3] - indexbp[0]) * factor
gammas = (deltasplus - deltas) / (indexbp[1] - indexbp[0]) / 100
return pd.DataFrame({"delta": deltas, "gamma": gammas}, index=self._row_names)
def tranche_corr01(self, eps=0.01, complement=False, zero_recovery=False):
bp = self.tranche_pvs(
complement=complement, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).bond_price
rho_saved = self.rho
self.rho = np.power(self.rho, 1 - eps)
corr01 = (
self.tranche_pvs(
complement=complement, zero_recovery=zero_recovery
).bond_price
- bp
)
self.rho = rho_saved
return corr01
def implied_ss(self):
return self.tranche_pvs().bond_price[-1]
def build_skew(self, skew_type="bottomup"):
assert skew_type == "bottomup" or skew_type == "topdown"
dK = np.diff(self.K)
def aux(rho, obj, K, quote, spread, complement):
cl, pl = obj.tranche_legs(K, rho, complement)
return pl + cl * spread + quote
if skew_type == "bottomup":
r = range(0, len(dK) - 1)
elif skew_type == "topdown":
r = range(-1, -len(dK), -1)
skew_is_topdown = skew_type == "topdown"
for j in r:
cl, pl = self.tranche_legs(
self.K[j], self.rho[j], complement=skew_is_topdown
)
q = (
self.tranche_quotes.quotes.iat[j] * dK[j]
- pl
- cl * self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[j]
)
nextj = j - 1 if skew_is_topdown else j + 1
try:
x0, r = brentq(
aux,
0.0,
1.0,
args=(
self,
self.K[nextj],
q,
self.tranche_quotes.running.iat[j],
skew_is_topdown,
),
full_output=True,
)
except ValueError as e:
raise ValueError(f"can't calibrate skew at attach {self.K[nextj]}")
if r.converged:
self.rho[nextj] = x0
else:
print(r.flag)
break
self._skew = CubicSpline(
np.log(self.K[1:-1] / self.expected_loss()),
logit(self.rho[1:-1]),
bc_type="natural",
)
def map_skew(self, index2, method="ATM", shortened=0):
def aux(x, index1, el1, index2, el2, K2, shortened):
if x == 0.0 or x == 1.0:
newrho = x
else:
newrho = index1.skew(x)
assert (
newrho >= 0.0 and newrho <= 1.0
), f"Something went wrong x: {x}, rho: {newrho}"
return (
self.expected_loss_trunc(x, rho=newrho) / el1
- index2.expected_loss_trunc(K2, newrho, shortened) / el2
)
def aux2(x, index1, index2, K2, shortened):
newrho = index1.skew(x)
assert (
newrho >= 0 and newrho <= 1
), f"Something went wrong x: {x}, rho: {newrho}"
return np.log(self.probability_trunc(x, newrho)) - np.log(
index2.probability_trunc(K2, newrho, shortened)
)
def find_upper_bound(*args):
K2 = args[4]
while aux(K2, *args) < 0:
K2 *= 1.1
if K2 > 1.0:
raise ValueError("Can't find reasonnable bracketing interval")
return K2
if method not in ["ATM", "TLP", "PM"]:
raise ValueError("method needs to be one of 'ATM', 'TLP' or 'PM'")
if method in ["ATM", "TLP"]:
el1 = self.expected_loss()
el2 = index2.expected_loss(shortened=shortened)
if method == "ATM":
moneyness1_eq = index2.K[1:-1] / el2
elif method == "TLP":
moneyness1_eq = []
for K2 in index2.K[1:-1]:
b = find_upper_bound(self, el1, index2, el2, K2, shortened)
moneyness1_eq.append(
brentq(aux, 0.0, b, (self, el1, index2, el2, K2, shortened)) / el1
)
elif method == "PM":
moneyness1_eq = []
for K2 in index2.K[1:-1]:
# need to figure out a better way of setting the bounds
moneyness1_eq.append(
brentq(
aux2,
K2 * 0.1 / el1,
K2 * 2.5 / el1,
(self, index2, K2, shortened),
)
)
return np.hstack([np.nan, self.skew(moneyness1_eq), np.nan])
def __repr__(self):
result = pd.concat([self.tranche_deltas(), self.tranche_thetas()], axis=1)
result["corr_01"] = self.tranche_corr01()
result["corr_at_detach"] = self.rho[1:]
result["price"] = self.tranche_pvs().bond_price
result["net_theta"] = result.theta - self.theta(self.maturity) * result.delta
return repr(result)
class MarkitTrancheBasket(TrancheBasket):
def _set_tranche_quotes(self, value_date):
if isinstance(value_date, datetime.datetime):
value_date = value_date.date()
df = get_tranche_quotes(
self.index_type, self.series, self.tenor, value_date, "Markit"
)
if df.empty:
raise ValueError
else:
self.tranche_quotes = df
def _update_tranche_quotes(self):
self.tranche_quotes["running"] = self.tranche_quotes.trancherunningmid * 1e-4
self.tranche_quotes["quotes"] = self.tranche_quotes.trancheupfrontmid
self._accrued = np.array(
[cds_accrued(self.value_date, r) for r in self.tranche_quotes.running]
)
self.tranche_quotes.quotes -= self._accrued
class ManualTrancheBasket(TrancheBasket):
"""TrancheBasket with quotes manually provided"""
def _set_tranche_quotes(self, value_date, ref, quotes):
if self.index_type == "HY":
detach = [15, 25, 35, 100]
elif self.index_type == "IG":
detach = [3, 7, 15, 100]
elif self.index_type == "EU":
detach = [3, 6, 12, 100]
else:
detach = [10, 20, 35, 100]
coupon = 500 if (self.index_type == "HY" or self.index_type == "XO") else 100
if self.index_type == "HY":
ref_type1 = "indexrefprice"
ref_type2 = "indexrefspread"
else:
ref_type1 = "indexrefspread"
ref_type2 = "indexrefprice"
self.tranche_quotes = pd.DataFrame(
{
"detach": np.array(detach),
"trancheupfrontmid": np.array(quotes),
"trancherunningmid": np.full(4, coupon),
ref_type1: np.full(4, ref),
ref_type2: np.full(4, None),
}
)
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