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authorThibaut Horel <thibaut.horel@gmail.com>2015-10-14 21:38:46 -0400
committerThibaut Horel <thibaut.horel@gmail.com>2015-10-14 21:38:46 -0400
commitbcba8817e73e7e9f779eb50a8a4df4b204c64d26 (patch)
tree143f3ac0309a95c62972cd693cdae4bf98c39f47 /finale
parent67607518a47aed0ee63009695eb81979ab05ca92 (diff)
downloadcascades-bcba8817e73e7e9f779eb50a8a4df4b204c64d26.tar.gz
Cleaning up the project proposal
Diffstat (limited to 'finale')
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diff --git a/finale/project_proposal.tex b/finale/project_proposal.tex
index 5e0d21c..c8607e6 100644
--- a/finale/project_proposal.tex
+++ b/finale/project_proposal.tex
@@ -1,96 +1,122 @@
-\documentclass[8pt]{article}
+\documentclass[10pt]{article}
+\usepackage[utf8x]{inputenc}
\usepackage{fullpage, amsmath, amssymb, amsthm}
+\usepackage{bbm}
+\DeclareMathOperator*{\argmax}{argmax}
-\title{Regression Analysis with Network data}
-\author{Jean Pouget-Abadie, Thibaut Horel}
-\date{}
+\title{Regression Analysis with Network Data}
+\author{Thibaut Horel \and Jean Pouget-Abadie}
\begin{document}
\maketitle
-\subsection*{The Network Inference problem}
+\section{Background: Cascade Models and Network Inference}
-The network inference problem concerns itself with learning the edges and the
-edge weights of an unknown network. Each edge weight $\theta_e, e\in E$ is a
-parameter to be estimated. The information at our disposal is the result of a
-cascade process on the network. Here, we will focus on the Generalized Linear
-Cascade (GLC) model introduced in~\cite{paper} presented below.
+The Network Inference Problem concerns itself with learning the edges and the
+edge weights of an unknown network on the set of vertices $V$. Formally, the
+set of parameters to learn is a matrix $\theta\in\mathbb{R}^{V\times V}$ where
+$\theta_{u,v}$ is the weight corresponding to the pair of vertices $(u, v)$.
+The observations at our disposal for this learning task are samples drawn for
+a probabilistic cascade model. In this project, we will focus on the
+Generalized Linear Cascade (GLC) model introduced in~\cite{pouget} that we
+briefly present below.
-\paragraph{The GLC model}
-
-Consider a graph $\mathcal{G} = (N, E)$, where nodes $N$ can be one of three
-possible states: susceptible, infected, and immune. Let $x^t$ be the indicator
-variable of ``infected nodes'' at time step $t$. A \emph{generalized linear
-cascade model} is a cascade model such that for each ``susceptible'' node $i$ at
-time step $t$, the probability of $i$ becoming ``infected'' at time step $t+1$
-conditioned on $x^t$ is a Bernoulli variable of parameter $f(\theta_i
-\cdot X^t)$:
+\paragraph{GLC model.} The nodes in $V$ can be in one of three possible states:
+susceptible, infected, and immune. Let $x^t$ be the indicator variable of
+``infected nodes'' at time step $t$ and $S_t$ be the set of susceptible nodes
+at time step $t$. A \emph{generalized linear cascade model} is a discrete-time
+random process in which the conditional law of $x^{t+1}$ given $x^t$ takes the
+following form: for each ``susceptible'' node $i$ at time step $t$, the
+probability of $i$ becoming ``infected'' at time step $t+1$ conditioned on
+$x^t$ is a Bernoulli variable of parameter $f(\theta_i \cdot x^t)$:
\begin{equation}
- \mathbb{P}(x^{t+1}_i = 1|x^t) = f(\theta_i \cdot x^t)
+ \label{eq:model}
+ \mathbb{P}(x^{t+1}_i = 1\,|\,x^t) = f(\theta_i \cdot x^t),
+ \quad i\in S_t
\end{equation}
-where $f: \mathbb{R} \rightarrow [0,1]$. There is no a priori rule for the
-transition from and to the immune and susceptible state, but the most commonly
-studied GLC model, known as the Independent Cascade model, assumes that all
+for some function $f: \mathbb{R} \rightarrow [0,1]$ and where $\theta_i
+= (\theta_{u, i})_{u\in V}$. There is no a priori rule for the transition from
+and to the immune and susceptible state, but the most commonly studied GLC
+model, known as the Independent Cascade model \cite{Kempe:03}, assumes that all
infected nodes at time step $t$ are immune for all time steps $t' \geq t+1$.
Under this assumption, a cascade ends when no ``infected'' nodes remain. The
designer is also free to decide the initial state of graph $\mathcal{G}$ at the
-beginning of every cascade process. For simplicity, we will suppose that, at the
-start of each cascade, one node is chosen uniformly at random to be
+beginning of every cascade process. For simplicity, we will suppose that, at
+the start of each cascade, one node is chosen uniformly at random to be
``infected'', and that all other nodes are in the ``susceptible'' state.
-\bigskip
-The network inference problem can therefore be formalized as finding the support
-of the edge weight vector $\theta$ from the observation of ${(x^c_t)}_{c\in
-\mathcal{C}, t\in \mathcal{T}_C}$, where $\mathcal{C}$ indexes the cascade
-number, and $\mathcal{T}_C$ the time step in that cascade. Prior work has
-observed that the network inference problem is decomposable node-by-node
-i.e.~solving for $\beta_{i} = \{\theta_{i,j} | j \in N\}$ for node $i$. This can
-easily be formulated as the following maximum likelihood program:
-$$ \theta_{i} \in \arg \max_\theta \log
-\mathcal{L}_i(\theta_i\,|\,x^1,\ldots,x^n) = \frac{1}{|{\cal T}_i|} \sum_{t\in
-{\cal T}_i } x_i^{t+1}\log f(\theta_i\cdot x^{t}) + (1 -
-x_i^{t+1})\log\big(1-f(\theta_i \cdot x^t)\big)$$
-where $\mathcal{T}_i = \{\text{node i is ``susceptible'' at time step } t\}$.
-The reader will note the above problem boils down to fitting a generalized
-linear model. In particular, if $f$ is the sigmoid function, we are performing
+\paragraph{Inference.} A cascade is the collection of vectors $x^t$ for all
+time steps until the cascade ends. Given a sample of independent cascades, the
+parameters $\theta$ can be estimated using maximum likelihood estimation. Prior
+work has observed that the MLE problem can be decomposed node-by-node
+\emph{i.e}, $\theta_i$ can be learned independently for each node $i$ by
+solving the following optimization program:
+\begin{equation}
+ \label{eq:mle}
+ \hat{\theta}_{i} \in \argmax_\theta
+ \log \mathcal{L}_i(\theta_i) =
+ \sum_{t:i\in S_t} x_i^{t+1}\log f(\theta_i\cdot x^{t})
+ + (1 - x_i^{t+1})\log\big(1-f(\theta_i \cdot x^t)\big)
+\end{equation}
+The reader will observe that the above problem reduces to fitting a generalized
+linear model. It is important to note that even though the cascades are
+independent, the vectors $x^t$ observed within a cascade are not independent
+since they follow the Markov process described in \eqref{eq:model}. In the
+particular case where $f$ is the sigmoid function, we are performing
logistic regression:
-$$
+\begin{displaymath}
\begin{cases}
-y_i^* = \theta_i \cdot x_i + \epsilon \text{~where~} \epsilon\sim
-Logistic(0, 1) \text{~and~} x = {(x^t)}_{t \in \mathcal{T}_i}\\
-y_i = [y_i^* > 0] \text{~where~} y_i^t = x_i^{t+1}
+ y^t = \theta_i \cdot x^t + \varepsilon^t
+ &\text{where } \varepsilon^t\sim \text{Logistic}(0, 1)\\
+ \tilde{y}^t = \mathbf{1}\{y^t > 0\} &\text{where } x_i^{t+1} = \tilde{y}^t
\end{cases}
-$$
+\end{displaymath}
-\subsection*{Objectives}
+\section{Problem Statement}
+A growing series of work (see for example \cite{Netrapalli:2012,
+Daneshmand:2014, pouget}) has focused on solving the Network Inference Problem
+under different cascade models and obtaining estimators with close-to-optimal
+convergence rates. However, these works often rely on hard-to-interpret
+assumptions which often hide subtle properties of the probabilistic model
+\eqref{eq:model}. The overarching goal of the current project is to analyze the
+fundamental statistical properties of observations coming from model
+\eqref{eq:model} and of the MLE estimator \eqref{eq:mle}. In particular we are
+interested in the following questions:
\begin{itemize}
-\item Try a Bayesian approach to estimate these parameters. Use the posterior
-predictive distribution to obtain confidence intervals for the edge parameters.
-Validate this with bootstrapping. How does this perform in different networks?
-Can you intuitively link certain node-level/graph-level properties with the
-resulting variance on the estimated parameter?
-\item Do the previous observations correspond with the theoretical result, given
-by the Fisher information matrix: $$\hat \beta \sim \mathcal{N}(\beta,
-I{(\theta)}^{-1})$$ where $I(\theta) = - {\left(\frac{\partial^2\log
-\mathcal{L}}{\partial \theta^2} \right)}^{-1}$
+\item Is the model \eqref{eq:model} identifiable and is the MLE estimator
+ \eqref{eq:mle} consistent? Are there networks which are fundamentally
+ ambiguous and for which the Network Inference Problem is unsolvable?
+\item Use a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters. Use the posterior
+ predictive distribution to obtain confidence intervals for the edge
+ parameters. Validate this with bootstrapping.
+\item Are there networks which are harder to learn than others? Can the
+ variance of the MLE estimator be related to certain graph theoretic
+ properties of the network?
+\item Do the previous observations match with the theoretical result, given
+by the Fisher information matrix:
+\begin{displaymath}
+ \hat{\theta}_i \sim \mathcal{N}(\theta_i, I{(\theta_i)}^{-1})
+ \quad \text{where}\;
+ I(\theta) = - \left(\frac{\partial^2\log \mathcal{L}_i}{\partial \theta^2}
+ \right)^{-1}
+\end{displaymath}
\item Are there networks in which the Fisher information matrix is singular?
-What happens to the estimation of $\beta$ in this case?
-\item What if the generative process is generated with a different link
-function? Is there a regularization scheme which can mitigate any bias/exploding
-variance in the estimated parameters?
+What happens to the estimation of $\theta_i$ in this case?
+\item Is the estimator \eqref{eq:mle} robust to the choice of $f$? What if the
+ observations are generated with $f_1$, but \eqref{eq:mle} is solved with
+ $f_2\neq f_1$? Is there a regularization scheme which can mitigate any bias
+ or lack of convergence in the estimated parameters?
\end{itemize}
-\subsection*{Program plan}
-
-The project will be a series of simulations to answer each of the above
-questions? When possible, we will try to explain the results found in the
-simulation with a simplified analysis on toy-networks. Thibaut and I have worked
-together in the past, and have kept our contributions balanced.
+\paragraph{Roadmap.} We plan to answer the above question by a mixture of
+a theoretical-based and a simulation-based approaches. We expect some of these
+questions to be hard from the theoretical standpoint. In those cases, the
+hardness can be mitigated by using simulations or focusing on specific cases:
+toy-networks (star graph, cycle, complete graph, etc.) or simpler cascades
+models (the Voter Model for example).
-\begin{thebibliography}{1}
-\bibitem{paper} Pouget-Abadie, J. and Horel, T. \emph{Inferring Graphs from
-Cascades: A Sparse Recovery Framework}, ICML 2015
-\end{thebibliography}
+\bibliography{sparse}
+\bibliographystyle{abbrv}
\end{document}
diff --git a/finale/sparse.bib b/finale/sparse.bib
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f50a0d2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/finale/sparse.bib
@@ -0,0 +1,507 @@
+@article {CandesRomberTao:2006,
+author = {Candès, Emmanuel J. and Romberg, Justin K. and Tao, Terence},
+title = {Stable signal recovery from incomplete and inaccurate measurements},
+journal = {Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics},
+volume = {59},
+number = {8},
+publisher = {Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company},
+issn = {1097-0312},
+pages = {1207--1223},
+year = {2006},
+}
+
+
+@inproceedings{GomezRodriguez:2010,
+ author = {Gomez Rodriguez, Manuel and Leskovec, Jure and Krause, Andreas},
+ title = {Inferring Networks of Diffusion and Influence},
+ booktitle = {Proceedings of the 16th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on
+ Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining},
+ series = {KDD '10},
+ year = {2010},
+ isbn = {978-1-4503-0055-1},
+ location = {Washington, DC, USA},
+ pages = {1019--1028},
+ numpages = {10},
+ publisher = {ACM},
+ address = {New York, NY, USA},
+}
+
+@inproceedings{pouget,
+ title={Inferring graphs from cascades: A Sparse Recovery Framework},
+ author={Pouget-Abadie, Jean and Horel, Thibaut},
+ booktitle = {ICML},
+ year={2015}
+}
+
+@inproceedings{du2013uncover,
+ title={Uncover topic-sensitive information diffusion networks},
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+ booktitle={Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on
+ Artificial Intelligence and Statistics},
+ pages={229--237},
+ year={2013}
+}
+
+@inproceedings{du2014influence,
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+ pages={2016--2024},
+ year={2014}
+}
+
+
+@article{Netrapalli:2012,
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+ issn = {0163-5999},
+ numpages = {12},
+ publisher = {ACM},
+ address = {New York, NY, USA},
+ keywords = {cascades, epidemics, graph structure learning},
+}
+
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+ Journal = {Statistical Science},
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+}
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+ acmid = {1248637},
+ publisher = {JMLR.org},
+}
+
+@inproceedings{Daneshmand:2014,
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+ Le Song and
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+ year = {2014},
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
+@inproceedings{Kempe:03,
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
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+
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+ author = {Bruno D. Abrahao and
+ Flavio Chierichetti and
+ Robert Kleinberg and
+ Alessandro Panconesi},
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+ and Data Mining, {KDD} 2013, Chicago, IL, USA, August 11-14, 2013},
+ pages = {491--499},
+ year = {2013},
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+
+
+@article{vandegeer:2009,
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+fjournal = "Electronic Journal of Statistics",
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+publisher = "The Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the Bernoulli Society",
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+year = "2009"
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+publisher = "The Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the Bernoulli Society",
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+}
+
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+ Petros T. Boufounos and
+ Richard G. Baraniuk},
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+ Sparse Vectors},
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+}
+
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+ author = {Ankit Gupta and
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+ Benjamin Recht},
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+ classification},
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+}
+
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+ author = {Yaniv Plan and
+ Roman Vershynin},
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+ journal = {Discrete {\&} Computational Geometry},
+ volume = {51},
+ number = {2},
+ pages = {438--461},
+ year = {2014},
+ timestamp = {Tue, 11 Feb 2014 13:48:56 +0100},
+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
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+author = "Bickel, Peter J. and Ritov, Ya’acov and Tsybakov, Alexandre B.",
+fjournal = "The Annals of Statistics",
+journal = "Ann. Statist.",
+month = "08",
+number = "4",
+pages = "1705--1732",
+publisher = "The Institute of Mathematical Statistics",
+title = "Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector",
+volume = "37",
+year = "2009"
+}
+
+@article{raskutti:10,
+ author = {Garvesh Raskutti and
+ Martin J. Wainwright and
+ Bin Yu},
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+ journal = {Journal of Machine Learning Research},
+ volume = {11},
+ pages = {2241--2259},
+ year = {2010},
+ timestamp = {Wed, 15 Oct 2014 17:04:32 +0200},
+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
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+ author = {Mark Rudelson and
+ Shuheng Zhou},
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+ journal = {{IEEE} Transactions on Information Theory},
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
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+ author = {Khanh Do Ba and
+ Piotr Indyk and
+ Eric Price and
+ David P. Woodruff},
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+ year = {2011},
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+ David P. Woodruff},
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+ editor = {Rafail Ostrovsky},
+ title = {{IEEE} 52nd Annual Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, {FOCS}
+ 2011, Palm Springs, CA, USA, October 22-25, 2011},
+ publisher = {{IEEE} Computer Society},
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+ timestamp = {Mon, 15 Dec 2014 18:48:45 +0100},
+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
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+ author = {Eric Price and
+ David P. Woodruff},
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+ timestamp = {Mon, 01 Oct 2012 17:34:07 +0200},
+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
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+ title = {Proceedings of the 2012 {IEEE} International Symposium on Information
+ Theory, {ISIT} 2012, Cambridge, MA, USA, July 1-6, 2012},
+ publisher = {{IEEE}},
+ year = {2012},
+ isbn = {978-1-4673-2580-6},
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
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+ year = {2002}
+}
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+}
+
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+ author = {Manuel Gomez{-}Rodriguez and
+ David Balduzzi and
+ Bernhard Sch{\"{o}}lkopf},
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+ year = {2011},
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
+@article{Nowell08,
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+ keywords = {SNA graph networks},
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+ pages = {4633-4638},
+ timestamp = {2008-10-09T10:32:56.000+0200},
+ title = {{Tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data}},
+ volume = 105,
+ year = 2008
+}
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+@inproceedings{Leskovec07,
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+ Mary McGlohon and
+ Christos Faloutsos and
+ Natalie S. Glance and
+ Matthew Hurst},
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+ pages = {551--556},
+ year = {2007},
+ timestamp = {Wed, 12 Feb 2014 17:08:15 +0100},
+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
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+ year = {2005},
+ timestamp = {Tue, 12 Aug 2014 16:59:16 +0200},
+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
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+ bibsource = {dblp computer science bibliography, http://dblp.org}
+}
+
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+ publisher={Wiley Online Library}
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+ year={2014},
+ publisher={JMLR. org}
+}
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+ year={2006},
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+ pages={1705--1732},
+ year={2009},
+ publisher={JSTOR}
+}
+
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+}
+
+