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library(igraph)
setwd("~/Documents/Cascade Project/")
load('Results/hyper-lcc.RData')
load('Results/dag_dat_vics.RData')
source('criminal_cascades/R Scripts/temporal.R')
# source('Scripts/homophily.R')
source('criminal_cascades/R Scripts/structural.R')
vic_ids = which(V(hyp_lcc)$vic==TRUE)
#### Initialize model parameters
alpha = 1/21
# gamma = 0.3
delta = 0.001
beta = 0.00796964464237
##### Get weights
# find max n days where infection possible given alpha
edges = dag_dat_vics
# edges = edges[(edges$t2-edges$t1)<300,]
p_t = temporal(edges$t1, edges$t2, alpha)
p_s = structural(delta, edges$dist)
p = p_s * p_t
p_tilde = 1 - p_s + p_s * temporal(edges$t1, edges$t2+1, alpha)
weights = p/p_tilde
##### Find transmission edges
# load('Results/lm-probs.RData')
# names = attr(lm.probs,'names')
# probs = as.numeric(lm.probs)
# betas = probs[match(hyp_lcc_verts$ir_no[edges$to],names)]
# betas = 0.055
thresh = beta/(1-beta)
realized = c()
# edges = edges[weights>thresh,]
# weights = weights[weights>thresh]
for (u in vic_ids){
max_prob = -1
max_edge = NULL
Ei = which(edges$to==u)
for(i in Ei){
if(weights[i]>thresh){
prob = p[i] * prod(p_tilde[setdiff(Ei,i)])
if(prob>max_prob){
max_prob = prob
max_edge = i
}
}
}
realized = c(realized, max_edge)
}
# if (length(Ei)>0){
# max_edge = Ei[which.max(weights[Ei])] # how to deal with ties????
# realized = c(realized, max_edge)
# }
##### Create forest of cascades
# dag is all of the victim nodes but with only transmission edges, or don't index by vic_ids
dag = graph.data.frame(edges[realized,1:2], directed=TRUE, vertices=hyp_lcc_verts[vic_ids,])
dag = set.edge.attribute(dag,'weight',value=weights[realized])
table(clusters(dag)$csize)
t=table(clusters(dag)$csize)
sizes = as.numeric(attr(t,'name'))
counts = as.numeric(t)
plot(sizes,counts,log='xy',type='o',lwd=3)
n.seeds = sum(counts)
n.nodes = sum(sizes*counts) # for vics case is just length(vic_ids)
n.infections = n.nodes-n.seeds
# dag = graph.edgelist(as.matrix(edges[realized,1:2]))
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